Screenshot of the trilateral meeting that included President Donald Trump, President Ilham Aliyev, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan taken from the Associated Press YouTube video “LIVE: Trump hosts Armenia and Azerbaijan for a peace summit”; fair use.

On August 8, 2025, the White House hosted a trilateral meeting in which U.S. President Donald Trump, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a series of agreements aimed at establishing long-term peace in the South Caucasus. The meeting took place just a month after Aliyev and Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi, where they discussed — among other things — border delimitation, the opening and development of the Zangezur corridor, and the initialing of the peace agreement.

A joint, seven-point declaration outlining what had been agreed upon, as well as the draft peace agreement coming out of Abu Dhabi, were shared shortly after the meeting. However, no date was announced as to when the final peace agreement would be signed.

Back at the White House, Trump called the day one that “will go down in history” as the moment “two enemies became friends.” During the signing ceremony, at which he thanked his fellow leaders and remarked that the European Union, Russia, and “Sleepy Joe Biden” had failed to achieve similar results in the past, Trump said, “For a long time — 35 years — they were at war, and now they are friends. And they will be friends for a long time.”

Decades of tensions

The Nagorno-Karabakh area has been under the control of its ethnic Armenian population as a self-declared state since a war fought in the early 1990s, which ended with a ceasefire and an Armenian military victory in 1994. In the aftermath, a new, internationally unrecognized, de facto Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was established, and seven adjacent regions were occupied by the Armenian forces. According to the International Crisis Group, more than a million people were forced from their homes as a result of the conflict: “Azerbaijanis fled Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the adjacent territories, while Armenians left homes in Azerbaijan.”

Tensions lingered over the following decades, culminating in the second Karabakh war in 2020 and an ensuing military operation in September 2023, with the latter paving the way for Azerbaijan to regain full control over Karabakh.

Both countries have been engaged in negotiations and countless meetings mediated by international stakeholders since the Second Karabakh War in 2020, centered around reaching a final bilateral agreement and settling their remaining disagreements.

The parameters of peace

The draft peace agreement, announced in March 2025, reportedly included major concessions from Armenia, such as the removal of European Union monitors from the border and the dropping of lawsuits in international courts. Azerbaijan has consistently criticized the EU monitors since their deployment in October 2022, accusing them of “creating military and intelligence cover for the Armenian side.” The EU mission's expansion in February 2023, following an Azerbaijani offensive in Armenia in September 2022, further strained relations with Baku and Moscow, both of whom questioned its purpose and legitimacy.

Azerbaijan's demands also included Armenia amending its constitution to remove any perceived territorial claims to Azerbaijan — specifically, references within its preamble to the 1990 Declaration of Independence. Armenia's constitution does not make direct references to Karabakh; the preamble refers to the Declaration of Independence that “references the 1989 joint decision of the Armenian SSR Supreme Council and the Artsakh National Council on the Reunification of the Armenian SSR and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh.”

Prime Minister Pashinyan has publicly supported adopting a new constitution through a national referendum, with plans for a vote in 2027.

The talks in Abu Dhabi underscored a significant shift in the regional power balance, as Russia — once considered a primary mediator — appeared increasingly sidelined. While Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov diplomatically welcomed the direct dialogue, the Abu Dhabi meeting signaled Moscow's waning influence in mediating. The EU has also been largely sidelined.

The “Trump Route” — a corridor for peace and prosperity

The most prominent element of the agreement is the Zangezur Corridor which, since the trilateral meeting, has been branded as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). The corridor is a vital transport link through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan, sandwiched between Armenia, Turkey, and Iran. This corridor holds significant potential for facilitating trade and transit between Europe and Asia, offering new economic opportunities for all parties involved. While the route will remain under Armenia’s sovereignty, the right to develop and administer the corridor will be granted for 99 years to an operator selected by the United States.

Since the end of the second Karabakh War, key points of contention have arisen in negotiations over the corridor. First, its name: Armenia rejects the term “Zangezur Corridor,” viewing it as a threat to the sovereignty over Syunik, Armenia's southern territory bordering Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan, in turn, opposes full Armenian control, citing concerns over reliable access, while Armenia refuses to cede control of the 32-kilometer (nearly 20-mile) route to any third party.

The proposal for the U.S. to take over the control of corridor was made in July in a press briefing in July by Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey. During the briefing, Barrack said, “Give us the 32 kilometers of road on a 100-year lease, and you can all share it.’” At the time of the statement, Middle East Eye's analysis pointed out this was “the first official confirmation that the Trump administration offered to manage the corridor through a private U.S. commercial operator, which would serve as a neutral guarantor.”

Strategic partnership and lifting of restrictions

Highlighting the significance of Trump’s decision to repeal Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act — which for decades had prohibited U.S. government assistance to Azerbaijan — and announcing that the two countries were becoming strategic partners, Aliyev hailed the meeting as a “historic day.”

“I'm sure that Armenia and Azerbaijan will find courage and responsibility to reconcile,” he said, “And also the people will reconcile. We will turn the page of standoff, confrontation and bloodshed, and provide [a] bright and safe future for our children.”

Trade, travel, and diplomacy

Under the agreement, the parties pledged to permanently cease hostilities, open up trade and travel, establish diplomatic relations, and respect each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Trump described Aliyev and Pashinyan as “two very special people,” emphasising their strong personal relationship.

When asked by journalists what would happen if one party backtracked on the deal, Trump replied that such a scenario was unlikely, but if “small problems” did arise, they would resolve them.

Aliyev said, “If [either] of us, Prime Minister Pashinyan or myself, had in mind to step back, we wouldn't have come here. So you can be absolutely sure […] that what has happened today will result in peace, a long lasting peace, eternal peace in the Caucasus.” For his part, Pashinyan simply said, “I fully agree and have nothing to add.”

Regional and international reactions

Iran, while publicly welcoming the peace agreement as “an important step,” explicitly rejected foreign-imposed changes near its borders. Tehran warned that it would act if geopolitical shifts threatened its security.

Turkey responded more positively, with a statement from its Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcoming the negotiations.

Western stakeholders also hailed the deal as a significant step toward regional stability. In a joint statement, President Costa of the European Council and President von der Leyen of the European Commission said the meeting was “a major development for both Armenia and Azerbaijan, paving the way to lasting, sustainable peace for both countries and across the entire region, also culminating years of EU efforts.”

In Moscow, official reactions were more reserved. The Kremlin said it would “carefully study the details” before making a full assessment. However, prominent Russian state TV host and propagandist Vladimir Solovyov delivered a stark warning during his evening broadcast, in which he expressed deep concern over the shifting balance in the South Caucasus, hinting at the possibility of a new Russian “special military operation” in the region.

“What is happening in the South Caucasus is a very big problem,” he said, “and the Caspian could soon find itself in a situation where NATO bases might appear there. This is so dangerous that, from a geopolitical standpoint, it could lead to consequences that might result in not the last special military operation of our generation. That is why all possible diplomatic means must be used to make sure that Russia’s interests are respected.”

Pro-government Azerbaijani media interpreted Solovyov's comments as a veiled threat toward Azerbaijan, describing them as representative of Moscow’s unease over any U.S.-led diplomatic success in its traditional sphere of influence.

Whether the agreement signed in Washington signals the beginning of a new chapter or a fragile truce remains to be seen. It could mark the beginning of a new era of peace for the South Caucasus or, as some fear, amount to nothing more than a geopolitical manoeuvre. The implementation of the “Trump Route” promises economic opportunities, but against a backdrop of deep historical grievances, its success will depend heavily on mutual trust and credible international guarantees.