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“Earlier this morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a kinetic strike against positively identified Tren de Aragua [TDA] Narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility,” tweeted U.S. President Donald Trump on September 2. The strike, which was carried out somewhere in the southern Caribbean Sea, was ostensibly done to target the “designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, operating under the control of Nicolas Maduro, responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, and acts of violence and terror across the United States and Western Hemisphere.”

The 11 people on board the vessel were killed instantly. Trump maintains that the boat was “transporting illegal narcotics, heading to the United States,” and that the military action should serve as a warning to anyone “even thinking about” bringing drugs into the U.S. The president’s tweet garnered more than 1,000 comments, including a message of gratitude from at least one Venezuelan netizen, scepticism about both the credibility of the story and the motivation for the strike, and even hope that drug trafficking between South and North America “will collapse.”

International news outlets published op-eds suggesting that the action — stemming from a directive to the Pentagon to use military force to deal with certain South American drug cartels considered to be terrorist organisations — amounted to an “illegal use of war powers to address what should have been a situation of law enforcement.” It was a position echoed by many social media users, at least one of whom likened the whole situation to a form of recolonisation.

However, Global Voices’ publishing partner Caracas Chronicles noted that the area from which the vessel left Venezuela is an established drug smuggling route, with strong ties to gangs. It also suggested that although there are still many unanswered questions surrounding the strike, the incident could set a precedent for more serious action.

Historically stable relations turn tenuous

The vessel in question departed from Venezuela’s state of Sucre, heading northwest. At its closest point, there are only 14 kilometres (8.7 miles) between the South American nation and Trinidad and Tobago, located at the base of the Caribbean archipelago. Despite challenges — many revolving around Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis — the two countries have historically enjoyed a cordial relationship, even against the backdrop of the Caribbean Community division over Venezuela’s political situation, and siding with CARICOM member Guyana in an ongoing border dispute.

Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said that she was happy about the success of the strike: “The pain and suffering the cartels have inflicted on our nation is immense. I have no sympathy for traffickers; the U.S. military should kill them all violently.” Her minister of defence, Wayne Sturge, also posited that if the U.S. succeeds in its military approach, it could result in a dramatic drop in Trinidad and Tobago’s murder rate, since “a significant percentage of our murders are gang related and stem from issues directly related to drug trafficking.”

While some agreed with the state’s stance, in a Letter to the Editor of Wired868, Osei Benn called the prime minister’s statement “troubling,” explaining, “To champion what essentially boils down to murder — even in the face of repugnant crimes — is to open a perilous path.” Advocating for “proper interdiction, fair trials, transparency, and regional cooperation,” he also felt that “what has begun as a ‘counter‑narcotics’ mission risks turning into a wider geopolitical conflict.”

In that vein, Trinidadian columnist Gabrielle Hosein suggested that “to justify US air and naval forces in and around the Southern Caribbean, US propaganda is pendulum-swinging [between] the threat of Venezuelan drug cartels to the US and, on the other, Venezuela’s threat to Guyana.”

For her, the issue comes back full circle to the border dispute. Hosein recalled U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying at a press conference on August 14 that the Maduro regime, far from being a “legitimate government,” is “a criminal enterprise that has “taken control of national territory of a country and who, by the way, are also threatening US oil companies that are operating lawfully in Guyana.”

Noting that Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali “drummed up support for an aggressive U.S. engagement with the region” in a discussion with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in July 2022, this “by the way,” Hosein believes, is the real story. “I believe in a strong stance against all militarism and U.S. military penetration of the Caribbean, and that the Yankees should go home,” she explained, “but the realpolitik is that even as we speak out — as we must — both the U.S. and ExxonMobil are Goliaths whose agendas trump our own.”

Connections with China and Russia

Yet, the official story kept changing. At first, the boat — nothing more substantial than a small fishing vessel — was deemed to be heading directly for the States. Rubio later claimed that “these particular drugs were probably headed to Trinidad or some other country in the Caribbean.” The shift prompted local criminologist Darius Figuera to wonder if the Trinidad and Tobago prime minister had been “misled” in endorsing a strike that “had nothing to do with drug trafficking” and instead was “connected to events happening in China over the past week.”

On September 3, China unveiled new weapons at a Victory Day military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II. In attendance were the leaders of China, Russia, and North Korea. Maduro’s government also staged a commemoration of the day in Caracas, hailing China as “the first military power on planet Earth.”

A few months before, on May 12, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Venezuelan counterpart Yván Gil, where, in reiterating his country’s intention to enhance bilateral cooperation, he referred to a meeting between the Chinese and Venezuelan presidents in Moscow on May 9. All this followed the signing of a strategic partnership between Russia and Venezuela just days prior, which reportedly involves cooperation via OPEC+ and other energy-based organisations. Meanwhile, China has been active in supporting Latin America, strengthening the China-CELAC Forum.

In this context, Figuera expressed concern about the geopolitical implications for Trinidad and Tobago, explaining, “China has embraced both Cuba and Venezuela. China has armed Venezuela. It has drawn a line in the sand.” By siding with the United States in this broader America-China tug of war in which Venezuela is being used as a pawn, the criminologist suggested that Persad-Bissessar had “dragged TT into a geopolitical stand-off.”

Safe to go back in the water?

Even as criticism of the Trinidad and Tobago prime minister’s statement continued, she defended her position, saying that she had a duty to protect law-abiding citizens.

President Maduro, meanwhile, referring to the U.S.’ modus operandi as “regime change through military threat,” said that Venezuela was willing to engage in dialogue. Trump has nevertheless sent 10 stealth fighter jets to Puerto Rico, with the aim of carrying out continued operations against drug cartels.

Some people wondered whether — as Venezuela’s communications minister, Freddy Ñáñez, claimed — footage of the strike was generated by artificial intelligence, relatives of the deceased disproved this narrative.

At the same time, Venezuela’s Minister of Interior, Justice and Peace Diosdado Cabello intimated that the standoff was “just starting.” By supporting the U.S.’ attack, he said, the Trinidad and Tobago government was “condemning their people to be executed at sea.”

Trinidadian politician Mickela Panday noted, “For the residents and fishermen of Cedros and Icacos [along Trinidad's southwestern tip], this is especially frightening as they depend on the sea for their livelihoods. We cannot allow our citizens to feel caught in the crossfire.”

Yet, some believe they already are. On September 5, the Pentagon said that two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a U.S. Navy vessel, in a “highly provocative move” they are interpreting as a show of force in the wake of the speedboat strike, aimed at interfering with America's war on drug trafficking.